Scenario Planning & Decision Architecture
Pre-committed board decision frameworks and sector stress-testing.
Geopolitical Advisory
Geopolitical disruption does not suspend commercial obligations. It multiplies them.
In the Middle East, geopolitical risk is not theoretical. It is operational. Supply chains fracture, insurers invoke exclusions, and force majeure clauses are triggered or challenged. We advise across the full disruption cycle, from early-warning preparedness through active response to post-conflict positioning, so an organisation can act with precision when conditions shift rather than improvise under pressure.
Who engages this
Boards with unquantified exposure to a specific scenario, executive teams facing an active event (a counterparty invoking force majeure, a supply chain cut, a workforce safety incident, an insurance claim) and investors with existing connections to a conflict-affected market assessing re-entry engage this pillar. The principal who wins the mandate delivers it; there is no junior screening.
The work
What this practice takes on.
Operational Continuity
Minimum viable operations, alternative supply chains, and liquidity under disruption.
Force Majeure, Sanctions & Contracts
Clause scope, notification strategy, and exposure modelling before dispute.
Workforce Protection & Duty of Care
UAE Labour Law duty-of-care frameworks, relocation, and immigration contingencies.
War-Risk Insurance & BI Claims
Pre-event cover review and claim quantification when war exclusions bite.
Post-Conflict Reconstruction
Market re-entry assessment and reconstruction-phase positioning.
On a mandate
The scenario we build for: a UAE healthcare importer sourcing critical medical supplies through the Red Sea corridor when Bab al-Mandeb routing forces reroutes, longer lead times, and a supplier invoking force majeure. Our role is to assess the clause scope against the actual disruption, model the working-capital and margin exposure across base, extended, and recovery cases, and stand up an alternative supply route so clinical operations hold while the contractual position is negotiated rather than litigated.
Questions
What clients ask first.
Does standard commercial insurance cover conflict disruption?
No. Standard commercial policies in the UAE exclude war risks, so when conflict disrupts operations the gap between covered loss and actual loss is material. We review cover adequacy before an event and, if one occurs, build the quantification that supports the strongest defensible claim.
Can we invoke force majeure to exit a contract during a disruption?
Not automatically. Force majeure protects a party only where the clause scope covers the specific event and notification is handled correctly, and sanctions exposure can crystallise on contracts signed before a designation. We assess the clause, advise on notification, and model the exposure before you act.
Is it too early to look at reconstruction markets like Syria or Lebanon?
For patient capital with existing local relationships, the positioning window is open now. Title complexity, banking recovery, and donor-funding conditionality create specific entry requirements, and the relationships that differentiate an investor are built before the market fully reopens.
Whether you are preparing for a scenario or already inside one, the conversation begins with a direct briefing with the principal.